Leading yourself and others through ambiguity
7 minute read
Why knowing the answer is not as important as asking the right questions.
In 2002 the US Sec of Defence Donald Rumsfeld gave a now famous response to a question at a U.S. Department of Defence news briefing on February 12th, 2002. He said, “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know”.
Whilst initial media responses were critical, those in the Intelligence and Science community would have been familiar with this pattern of thinking. Reading this, you may sympathise with security chiefs and intelligence officers needing to know how to respond to ambiguity, but what do such skills offer you and your business?
Ambiguity refers to a lack of clarity about how to interpret something. More generally it refers to fuzziness and vagueness in ideas and terminology. Someone who is able to deal with ambiguity “…can effectively cope with change, shift gears comfortably, decide and act without having the total picture, and handle risk and uncertainty.”
It’s about an ability to move from “I know change is coming, but I can’t really see the potential changes that might impact our organisation”, to a more positive and proactive stance which says, “I see change coming and am prepared and already doing something about it.”
In short being able to understand the meaning and likely impact of an event (rather than just simply describing it) is key to making plans that are more likely to progress and be proportionate to events.
Three Best Practice Approaches
Johari Window Mapping
The Johari Window is normally used in therapeutic sessions to help people better understand their relationship with themselves and others. However, it has great benefit in a business setting to help teams and leaders better understand unfolding events. In summary, teams can create better plans for responding to ambiguity by mapping what they know in a four square grid as below:
Public Arena – Issues are known to the team and to others. Response: Manage the known risks and stay vigilant for divergence.
Blind Spots – Issues that are not known to the team but known by others. These represent what others perceive but the team does not. Response: Interrogate Data (qualitative and quantitative) and use it to try to bring the issues into focus for you and your team.
What we are hiding – Issues that are known to the team but not by any of their peers, go in this quadrant. Response: What intel do we have that we can share in order to reduce stress and volatility across the market?
Known Unknowns – Issues that neither the team nor their peers know go in this quadrant. Response: Accept or Interrogate. Sometimes knowing you don’t know is good enough to make ‘next best step’ response. It is better to make a decision than not make a decision at all.
The overall idea is to expand the Public Arena square at the expense of both the Known Unknown and the Blind Spot square, resulting in greater knowledge of the Team. Voluntary disclosure of the hidden (or What we are hiding) square can result in greater influence.
Practice Moving from Abstract to Concrete (and back again)
Often the Known Unknowns are enough to make a start. Teams can schedule time to interrogate the issues and using a structured approach start to label the ‘Known Unknowns’ in a more helpful way.
Here are the main steps:
Capture a number of perspectives or stories on the issues
Discuss and establish what the various perspectives have in common
Sum up the concept you are seeing using a simple phrase or sentence
Label the concept with a clear title that communicates likely outcome
This approach results in a number of ‘scenarios’ which although hypothetical can become models through which to test possible actions. They can also help identify new phenomena that can lead to innovations – who knows what you will uncover and name for the first time!
Learning from others
It is true to say that the world is changing rapidly, so what you know now is less relevant than what you may learn if you embrace ambiguity positively. In other words, knowing the answer to questions is not as important as having the ability to ask the right questions from the start.
To do this, consider how other industries are adapting to the current issues. Key questions to ask include:
Are they experiencing ambiguity in the same way we are?
What is common to our industries that makes their learning adoptable?
What is different to our industry that is adaptable?
What is unique to their experience that can add to our knowledge of the issues but which we are unlikely to be able to practically adopt?
Try to adopt and encourage this mindset among employees as well and encourage your ‘learners’ on the team to share new insights as they emerge.
In Summary
Learning to lead through ambiguity is a core skill for every leader regardless of industry. It can be especially valuable where there are more complex interactions in your business and as such you should plan time out to interrogate your experiences as part of your yearly or quarterly planning process.
Each Voice deals with it differently and brings beneficial insight. Knowing your natural tendencies in that respect can help you develop a plan for a holistic approach toward ambiguity, rather than see it as a stressful event to avoid or ignore.
Ultimately being intentional in approaching ambiguity in the workplace (and at home) can lead to reduced stress over time, a more sustainable business model and a better sense of well-being.
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